Thailand’s e-commerce sector is expected to continue to grow by 15% annually, despite high household debt.
The sector will be driven by product discounts, the buy now, pay later (BNPL) strategy, and improved operating efficiency among e-commerce platforms powered by artificial intelligence (AI), said Paul Srivorakul, group chief executive of aCommerce, a pioneer in e-commerce enablement services.
Retail sector penetration is expected to rise from 25% to 40-50% in the coming years.
Mr Paul said the traditional retail sector is flat, and even decreasing for some vertical products.
“I see traditional retailers investing more in e-commerce to offset the slowdown in offline channels,” he said.
Brands and retailers will focus more on return on investment and performance-driven channels such as live-streaming, video commerce, social commerce, affiliates and AI commerce, said Mr Paul.
In the Thai e-commerce sector, the traditional linear search for products is being replaced by an AI-powered product discovery process.
Local consumers are asking complex shopping AI queries that require brands and retailers to shift from keyword-based marketing strategies to rich and personalised content powered by data and AI, he said.
Video commerce growth is expected to accelerate, accounting for 25% of e-commerce gross merchandise value as of last year, and remaining a dominant format through 2026.
This shift is fuelled by “shoppertainment”, a fusion of content and commerce that transforms online shopping into an immersive social experience led by trusted local creators.
Rise of agentic commerce
Mr Paul said e-commerce platforms now support agentic transactions, where AI agents verify identity and complete purchases across platforms seamlessly.
While still an untapped market, early movers such as marketplace platforms and brand-owned platforms on Shopify will integrate AI agents with standard application programming interfaces and digital IDs to drive repeat purchases and subscriptions.
He said consumers are moving away from mega-creators in favour of niche and micro-influencers.
Instead, Mr Paul said he sees the expansion of retail media networks (RMNs).
Moreover, e-commerce marketplaces, omni-channel retailers, and transport and food delivery platforms are leveraging their first-party data to build high-margin revenue streams with advertising.
This year brands will consolidate their “brand” and “trade” marketing budgets and use RMNs to target consumers directly at the digital point of sale, he said.
The e-commerce platforms are responding to Thailand’s high household debt by embedding digital lending and BNPL solutions into the customer checkout process to maintain sales momentum and serve underbanked consumers.
In addition, the Thai market will start consolidating as smaller domestic players shut down, leaving a few larger regional companies, said Mr Paul.
These leaders utilise massive economies of scale to create distinct competitive advantages that are difficult for smaller platforms to replicate.
Due to Thailand’s relatively low-cost labour compared with Western markets, he said businesses focus on improving worker efficiency rather than replacing them with fully automated systems.
Mr Paul said brands are focusing more on using direct-to-consumer business models due to commission fee hikes in e-commerce, allowing brands to regain control over their margins and customer data.
The growth of AI engines and AI search also drives customer traffic and commerce to brands’ websites.
Mr Paul says Thai e-commerce will grow 15% annually.
