E-commerce sales in the U.S. grew by 8.1% in 2024, but predictions are mixed on whether faster or slower growth will arrive in the coming years.
According to estimates released last week from the U.S. Census Bureau, the 8.1% gain represented a slight pickup following gains of 7.6% in 2023 and 7.7% in 2022. E-commerce sales surged 14.2% in 2021 and 32.4% in 2020 as widespread store closures and social distancing during the pandemic turbocharged e-commerce growth but then slowed in recent years as consumers flocked back to physical stores.
The bureau estimated e-commerce sales accounted for 16.1% of total sales in 2024, up from 11% in 2019.
Among those delivering subdued e-commerce forecasts is McKinsey, which estimated in a recent report that while U.S. online sales accelerated to 18% annual growth between 2019 and 2023, such sales “could now normalize at a more modest but still healthy growth rate” of around 6% a year, close to pre-pandemic rates.
McKinsey stated, “Consumers still love to shop online, but growth in e-commerce is no longer likely to be as frenzied as it was in recent years.”
Last August, eMarketer predicted a more robust U.S. e-commerce growth rate, at around an 8.7% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) from 2024 to 2028.
“U.S. retail sales will grow at a modest and stable pace through 2028, with e-commerce progressing more than four times faster than in-store sales,” said eMarketer. “Major retailers are returning to online sales growth after a tumultuous period of post-pandemic adjustment. Gen Z consumers and product category trends present key opportunities for growth in digital commerce.”
Forrester also predicted last August that online U.S. retail sales would expand at an 8.4% five-year CAGR through 2029, reaching 29.3% penetration by 2029 from 23.4% estimated for 2024.
In a blog entry, Jitender Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester, predicted online growth would “regain momentum” with a boost from advanced online payment solutions as well as both new and maturing channels. He said, “The rise of online marketplaces, social commerce, online grocery buying, click-and-collect services, quick commerce, livestream selling, and direct-to-consumer commerce will significantly boost online retail sales.”
Miglani told Retail TouchPoints that online grocery will see the fastest growth over the next five years, boosted by the appeal of same-day delivery and subscription services. He also said e-commerce upgrades will support growth in soft goods categories, particularly driving fast growth in beauty. He added, “Detailed product information, customer reviews and recommendations help drive online sales in personal care, nutraceuticals, medical supplies and OTC drugs. Ultra-low prices from Chinese retailers like SHEIN and Temu will help e-commerce sales in the apparel and footwear categories, despite longer delivery times”
A Boston Consulting Group study from 2023, based on a survey of retail and CPG executives, predicted that e-commerce sales would expand to 41% of global retail sales by 2027, over double from only 18% in 2017. The gains were expected to be driven by greater investments in digital technologies and e-commerce, the expansion of third-party e-commerce platforms, and advanced online assortment and pricing strategies.
Robert Derow, BCG’s leader for digital growth in North America, said in a press release at the time, “Many markets and categories are actually still years away from full e-commerce maturity, with tailwinds strong enough to justify investing greater capital and resources into winning capabilities and organizations.”
