In a recent report written for Retail Dive, senior reporter Daphne Howland made the case for an interesting argument: Retail may be embattled by a number of headwinds — including recessionary fears and a turbulent macroeconomic environment perturbed by tariff concerns and ongoing inflationary pressures — but e-commerce “is no longer the destabilizing force it once was.”
According to a May 12 Colliers Spring Retail Report produced by Anjee Solanki and Nicole Larson, in-store retail sales have declined only once over the course of the past 15 years, and that was in 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic spurred a host of store closures in the blink of an eye. And as an infographic detailing the respective portion of sales attributed to both e-commerce and in-store sales indicated, in-store sales still represent over three-quarters (76%) of core retail sales, and projections show that figure declining only slightly over the next few years.
“The real retail reality is that while headwinds like tariffs and store closures persist, the disruption from e-commerce appears largely behind us,” Solanki told Retail Dive.
E-Commerce and Brick-and-Mortar Retail May Work in Synergy, Rather Than Opposition
The Colliers report illuminated several key data points in favor of the argument of e-commerce and brick-and-mortar retail synergy, rather than the domination of the latter by the former:
- E-commerce stability: Held steady at 16.4% of all retail sales in Q4 2024 — the same as in Q2 2020, and up from 6.6% in Q4 2014.
- Retail space resilience: U.S. retail space vacancy rate was just 4.2% as of Q1 2025, and shopping center occupancy reached a decade-high peak.
- Omnichannel fulfillment: 30% of online retail sales are supported by physical stores through curbside pickup, in-store pickup, and direct shipping from store inventory.
“Physical stores still account for the vast majority of core retail sales — 76.2% — and the pace of erosion is slowing as online growth stabilizes,” the Colliers study underscored.
By 2030, Colliers expects that omnichannel methods will fulfill more than a third (36.3%) of online orders. On the other side of the equation, physical retail stores will likely shoulder at least some of the responsibility for fielding returns related to online purchases. Data suggests that 77.1% of those polled by Colliers agreed or strongly agreed that they were reluctant to pay return fees for items bought online — a trend that is becoming more commonplace due to a variety of factors.
But it may not be that simple, as Solanki indicated.
“Returns are a key part of the omnichannel experience but handling them in-store requires balancing customer engagement with operational efficiency,” she said. “While in-store returns can drive additional sales and reinforce brand control, they also take up valuable space, potentially limiting revenue per square foot. Outsourcing to third party logistics providers may reduce costs and free up store resources, though it sacrifices direct customer touchpoints.”
Party City, Family Dollar, Big Lots, and Other Major Retail Failings Discussed, and Hope on the Horizon
The Colliers study also reviewed several notable recent retail exits, downsizings, and restructurings — including Party City, Family Dollar, Big Lots, Walgreens, Macy’s, Kohl’s, JOANN, and Forever 21 — while dismissing misconceptions attributing the primary causes of their troubles to the rise in online shopping.
“The core issue has often been a failure to adapt business models or meet evolving customer expectations. Notably, most customer defections have been to retailers with physical stores rather than to online-only competitors,” the authors wrote.
On the other hand, entrants into the U.S. market — global brands such as Aesop, ALDI, Gucci, JD Sports, Mango, Pandora, and Sephora, most prominently — appear poised to break into the stateside retail business in the future. A breakdown of historical store openings since 2018 told the tale: All of the aforementioned brands consistently opened more stores in the U.S. year-over-year, signaling confidence in the U.S. consumer at the physical retail touchpoint.
Report co-author Larson penned the conclusion attached to the Colliers report, keeping her remarks both positive and on target.
“Despite ongoing challenges, physical retail continues to demonstrate its resilience. Stores remain central to the equation — powering digital fulfillment, fostering brand engagement, and anchoring omnichannel strategies. As the market navigates tighter supply, inflationary pressures, and shifting consumer expectations, retailers who embrace flexibility through strategic expansion, pricing agility, or channel integration — will be best positioned to lead. Today’s retail story isn’t about decline but transformation,” she wrote.
