The American consumer just keeps on keeping on.
The latest retail sales figures came in better than expected: up 0.6% in August, after a similar monthly gain in July. That’s despite falling consumer confidence because of tariffs and growing cracks in the job market.
Gains were led by non-store spending — that is, generally speaking, e-commerce — which grew about 2% last month and was up more than 10% compared to last year.
If it feels like you’ve read the whole “more shopping going online” story a bunch of times, it’s probably because you have.
“Marketplace” talked to retailing and consumer science professor Olivia Johnson at the University of Houston about very similar trends in 2023 and again in 2024.
“I am always surprised that people are surprised that these sales are increasing,” she said.
But Johnson said the fact that e-commerce is sustaining such high growth, year after year, even under very different economic conditions, is itself notable. And it’s always driven by new trends.
“I mean, I never imagined that people would be buying cars online,” she said.
There’s also the rise of shopping on social media platforms like TikTok. Plus, agentic retail, said consultant Michael Brown at Kearney.
“People using AI bots to find the products that they’re looking for at the price they want, without browsing, shopping or leaving your house,” he said.
Assisted by bots or not, retail strategist Neil Saunders at GlobalData said consumers are looking for value, “to find the best bargains and to make their dollars go further.”
Still, he said he was surprised to see online purchases increase a month after the avalanche of sales around Amazon Prime Day — aka Christmas in July.
But something happened last month that could have driven shoppers to hit the buy button, said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY: the end of the de minimis exemption.
That’s the tariff loophole for low value international shipments President Donald Trump’s administration scrapped.
“This likely pushed a few consumers to essentially order ahead of time,” Daco said.
So they could sneak in buying a few more international Etsy treasures and Korean face lotions before tariffs kicked in.
